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The college football world was expecting a March Madness kind of feel for the first-ever 12-team College Football Playoff, with upsets galore. Instead, the four first-round matches underwhelmed, providing plenty of time for vacation shopping. Favorites went a perfect 4-0 against the spread, consisting of three fairly non-competitive performances by underdogs Indiana, SMU and Tennessee. Sportsbooks and the general public don't appear to think so. At least in two cases.
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Both Penn State-Boise State and Texas-Arizona State function double-digit spreads preferring the lower-seeded Nittany Lions and Longhorns. And the latter has actually been a specifically popular choice with the public. The Longhorns -12.5 is the most-bet side at BetMGM nationally in terms of total dollars as of Monday afternoon.

"All the cash is coming in on Texas," Seamus Magee, a BetMGM trader, composed in a text to The Athletic. "We need Arizona State to cover +13.5."

The enthusiasm for the Longhorns reaches the futures market also. Remember that massive $1.5 million wager on Texas to win it all at +390 odds? The ticket is still out there at Caesars Sportsbook.

Interestingly, the Longhorns' opponent, Arizona State - the biggest underdog amongst the College Football quarterfinal matchups - is getting the most love from sharp gamblers. The Athletic talked to a number of bookies who had actually taken sharp action on No. 4 Arizona State - which had gotten as high as a 14-point underdog at some books versus No. 5 Texas - to push the line to -12.5 or -12.

John Murray, the executive director at The Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook, told us he got a wager on Arizona State +13.5 from a "very highly regarded gamer."
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Although respected cash has come in on Arizona State to cover, sportsbooks will likely need the Sun Devils to do simply that, as public wagerers are overdoing Texas.

"We would love to see ASU cover, and then Texas win the video game, so we get our Arizona State liability off the futures book," Magee added.

While the Texas video game will be substantial for the books, it isn't the only game in the area. We chatted with several bookmakers to break down where the sports betting action is on the other three College Football quarterfinal matches. 6 Penn State (-11, 53) at No. 3 Boise State

This video game opened Penn State -10.5 at the majority of sportsbooks and has actually crept up a little to a consensus of -11. sports betting on the spread is relatively split at many sportsbooks. The overall dollars bet varies by book, as 52% of bets and 79% of the money at BetMGM nationally are on Boise State -11, while 56% of bets however only 42% of the cash at DraftKings is on Boise State -11.5. Penn State to cover is currently the second most popular CFP wager in terms of overall tickets at BetMGM books.

"We opened Penn State -10.5 and are resting on Penn State -11," Thomas Gable, sportsbook director at The Borgata in Atlantic City, informed The Athletic. "I would not be surprised if this line creeps up a little bit more before kickoff, however I currently welcome any Boise State cash."

Ohio State got the Oregon 2nd chance it wanted. Are the Buckeyes ready for vengeance?
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No. 8 Ohio State (-2.5, 55.5) vs. No. 1 Oregon

Perhaps most to the public is that No. 1 seed Oregon is an underdog against No. 8 Ohio State. These groups fulfilled back on Oct. 7 in Eugene, and Oregon won 32-31 as a 3.5-point home dog.

So why is OSU preferred?

Several oddsmakers The Athletic talked with before the CFP very first round had Ohio State atop their power rankings, and the lookahead lines for this hypothetical matchup were Ohio State -1 or -1.5. One oddsmaker discussed that Ohio State playing up to its power score in its dominant first-round win over Tennessee also formed his opening line.

Ohio State opened as a 1- or 1.5-point favorite (depending upon the sportsbook) in this game before respected cash pushed it to the present line of -2.5. A slightly greater bulk of wagers at numerous sportsbooks, approximately 60%, are on the Ducks to cover, while near to 60% of the cash has actually been available in on the Buckeyes. This will likely be the highest-handle video game of the four come kickoff.
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"We did take some reputable cash at -1.5, quickly went to -2.5 where it's remained," Gable stated. "It's good two-way action at that number today. The overall has actually gone up 3 points from 52.5 to 55.5, which has been the most significant move of any of the overalls. Money has all been on the over up until now.

Joe Brennan, the CEO of Prime sports betting, a sportsbook in Ohio and New Jersey that accommodates sharp bettors, informed The Athletic that "Ohio State opened as a 1-point favorite, and immediately our Ohio bettors thought we were too low. Our opening price of Ohio State -1 has actually been driven up to -2.5 and the overall from 52 to 55."
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He did note, though, that the book had actually seen significant buyback at the present line of Ohio State -2.5 which 52% of the total dollars at his book were taking the points with the Ducks.

GO DEEPER

The most likely upsets for the College Football Playoff's second round

No. 7 Notre Dame vs. No. 2 Georgia (-1, 45)

The preferred turned in this game, as Notre Dame opened a 1.5-point favorite and is currently a 1- or 1.5-point underdog at sportsbooks.

What triggered the line turn? Simply put, the sports betting action.

Although Georgia's beginning QB Carson Beck is out for the season and has actually been changed by relative unidentified Gunner Stockton, wagerers are gravitating towards the Bulldogs.

Georgia to cover is the most popular against the spread wager at BetMGM books nationally in regards to ticket count (second-most popular by overall dollars bet), and it has been "one-way traffic on Georgia," according to Magee. Nearly 70% of bets are on the Bulldogs at multiple sportsbooks.
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